Volume 2: The crown and the hat are all over the capital, and the spirit is full of energy and enter the foggy city Chapter 14: The Sun is Setting
Subtitle of this chapter: The first time is tragedy, the second time is comedy, what is the third time?
The two Japanese soldiers looked a little unhappy. Nomura Kichisaburo coughed and said, "Mr. Yuan, please do not misunderstand. Our country adopted the '88 Fleet' plan in order to maintain harmony in the Far East with friendly countries and promote the co-prosperity of Greater East Asia. It is not targeting any country."
You are worthy of being a diplomat who can lie with open eyes. You are kidding, you don't even believe it.
"Oh, so that's how it is... Then I really misunderstood." Our Master Yuan said with a half-smile: "But what I think is not important. What is important is what the US government and the American people think."
This sentence really hits the nail on the head. Of course, if our Master Yuan now tells the two Japanese Jins openly that there will be a war between Japan and the United States, these two Japanese devils will definitely regard him as a lunatic.
So he didn't dwell on this topic too much, but changed the subject and said, "In fact, after all, it all comes down to the Anglo-Japanese Alliance."
"We Orientals have a term in Go: 'gold horns, silver edges, grass belly'. Why did the Second German Empire lose the war despite having the most powerful army in the world? It's because they were located in Central Europe, with Tsarist Russia to the east and Britain and France to the west. Fighting on two fronts, how likely is it that they won't be defeated?"
"Similarly, although the United States is far away from the world island and dominates the New World, as long as the Anglo-Japanese Alliance exists, they are in an unfavorable situation of being attacked from both the Pacific and Atlantic directions. If it were you, could you tolerate this strategic situation of having to fight on two fronts like Germany once the war breaks out?"
In fact, it is not surprising that these two elites of the Imperial Japanese Navy understood such simple geopolitical knowledge. The reason why Yuan Yanshu opened up was that he wanted to guide the conversation to the track he wanted.
He continued, "So the key is not your country or the United States, but... Britain!"
"If the British Empire still wants to maintain the glory of the Victorian era and continue to dominate the world, then Great Britain will never abandon the Anglo-Japanese Alliance. Otherwise... hehe."
After hearing this, Nomura and Yamamoto showed some disbelief. Yamamoto Isoroku couldn't help but ask: "Mr. Yuan, do you think the British will be willing to give up their global domination?"
Let’s put it this way: adults in 1921, certainly those with some common sense of international politics, can be called “Victorian figures” because they grew up in the afterglow of the “sunset of the British Empire”.
The Victorian era was the peak of the British Industrial Revolution and the heyday of the British Empire's economy and culture. For the Victorian people, although Britain was exhausted during World War I, it was rare to find someone like Master Yuan who was so sure that Niu Niu would fall from the top of the world.
When Yuan Yan heard this question, she couldn't help but perk up. It was finally time for her to show off.
"Mr. Yamamoto, it's not about whether Britain is willing or not, but whether it can maintain its world hegemony."
He habitually lit up his cigar, extinguished the match, and said leisurely: "Gentlemen, do you know what 'The resource curse' is?"
"Resource curse?" The two Japanese soldiers looked at each other and shook their heads.
Of course they don't know, because this phrase was just "invented" by our Master Yuan. Resource curse is a concept in development economics, also known as "Dutch Disease" in later generations.
Our Master Yuan enthusiastically began to brainwash them... Well, the class started:
"Gentlemen, throughout history there is an economic phenomenon that often occurs: a country's natural resources are too abundant, which will hinder its economic development..."
This view will be more deeply understood by future generations. The Arabian countries, which are "rich because of the oil", are a good example. Their industrialization and military strength, which seem to be glittering on the surface, are simply a shame.
Of course, there are other examples throughout history.
"You don't believe it? Let me give you an example."
"For example, the world's first truly global empire and colonial empire, the Spanish Empire, is also known as the first empire on which the sun never sets. In front of the two of you, I don't think I need to repeat its history. I just want to say that the Spanish Empire rose and fell because of American precious metals."
"This example tells us a truth: labor creates value, innovation drives progress, and relying on plunder and rent-seeking will only lead to the degeneration of a country and a nation! But this eternal truth cannot defeat human laziness and short-sightedness."
Yuan Yan took a puff of her cigarette and said with a strange expression, "For the human beings of our time, fortunately... or unfortunately, Britain has repeated the mistakes of Spain."
"The colonies all over the world are the American gold of the British. With such vast and rich colonies and such abundant and cheap labor, why would the British develop their own industry?"
After World War II, Keynes once recalled Britain of that era with melancholy: "London residents can buy all kinds of products from the whole world by phone while drinking tea in the morning. They can buy as much as they want as long as they think it is appropriate, and they have every reason to hope that the goods they order can be delivered to their door quickly. At the same time, they can also invest their wealth in natural resources and new enterprises in any corner of the world in the same way, and share the future fruits and advantages without any trouble or effort... In the past, this was a privilege only enjoyed by the richest classes and the most powerful monarchs."
Relying on exploiting the abundant resources and huge manpower of the colonies, Britain successfully completed the primitive accumulation of capital and industrialization, but it was also the abundant resources of the colonies that made the British industrial sector lose the motivation to move forward further.
Don't blame others for being jealous. The always honest Mustache said bluntly, "If the Anglo-Saxons do not realize that in addition to the interests of the British, there are also the interests of the Germans... then I think there can be no lasting friendship between the German and Anglo-Saxon peoples."
Do these scenes and words look familiar?
As a time traveler and economist, Yuan Yan suddenly knew that the resource curse trap of the world empire had occurred three times in history. The first time was when the Spanish Empire rose and fell due to precious metals in America; the second time was when the British Empire rose and fell due to colonies; and the third time...
"Engels, gentlemen... Of course I don't like his doctrine, but he said something very interesting: all great world-historical events and personalities often appear the first time as tragedy and the second time as comedy."
"The decline of the Spanish Empire was accompanied by a series of wars following the Thirty Years' War. What will happen to the decline of the British Empire?"
Speaking of this, our Master Yuan couldn't help but have a question in his mind: what will happen when the third world hegemony declines?
