Volume 2: The crown and the hat are all over the capital, and the spirit is full of energy and enter the foggy city Chapter 52 Big Data
Chapter subtitle: War aint what it used to be, The fog of war rolls away!
If the short-lived universal suffrage implemented after the Glorious Revolution and the French Revolution is regarded as the beginning of the Western universal suffrage system, then the public opinion polls on election activities that only began in the early 20th century were indeed late.
Moreover, opinion polls were originally designed to survey the satisfaction of newspaper and magazine readers, and of course they would soon be applied to political elections.
Whether from a business or political perspective, opinion polls are a very scientific and practical method.
Likewise, the savior of the free world was, by any measure, an extremely intelligent and shrewd man .
So when he heard Yuan Yanshu talking about survey methods such as sampling questionnaires, sampling phone calls, and sampling interviews, his eyes brightened up.
FDR could not help but interrupt: "Mr. Yuan, according to what you said, this kind of public opinion survey can also be applied to..."
"The election!" they said in unison.
All I could hear was the savior muttering, "I...well, why didn't we think of that?!"
Our Master Yuan thought, that's because you are not scientific enough. More precisely, you don't have a deep enough understanding of the elite democracy you practice, so you subconsciously ignore the preferences of the masses.
In fact, political economists have some very insightful views on this.
Remember Schumpeter? He believed that democracy is the process of political elites competing for power and the people choosing political leaders. The essence of democracy lies in a competitive election process. Political elites hold political power and exercise rule, but their legitimacy comes from the choice of the people.
In other words, the political market and the economic market are actually the same thing. In a democratic political market, politicians provide political platforms and compete freely in the general election to win voters' votes.
To put it more simply, modern representative democracy is nothing more than a "leader democracy based on referendum". Its main function, or even its only function, is to elect political leaders.
So, for political leaders, charisma is more important than intelligence!
The charm of a political leader is not just about being handsome, eloquent, fresh, experienced, and having a clean record. They also need to be down-to-earth and "concerned about the people's concerns" so that voters feel that the candidate is "on our side." This is when the role of public opinion polls comes into play.
For example, our Emperor Trump is clearly a member of the 1%, but he has managed to portray himself as the spokesperson for white trash. It couldn't be any smoother.
FDR suddenly raised his head, looked at Yuan Yan with a sharp gaze, and asked, "Mr. Yuan, are you interested in working for our Democratic Party... Oh, no, are you interested in working for our Fidelity Savings Guaranty Company?"
I am so talented that even the future savior of the free world regards me as the savior with just a few words.
It's a pity that the Democratic Party is such a broken boat now. If it doesn't sink to the bottom of the sea, it's God's blessing. The Republican Party is a nice boat... well, even if you want to jump off the boat, you have to wait until the Great Depression.
"Mr. Roosevelt, thank you for your kindness." Master Yuan said with great regret: "Unfortunately, I will return to China to get married after I get my doctorate in June this year. I am afraid I will not be able to work for you and your Fidelity in the next two years. But..."
Just now, he had a good idea, a very good idea.
"But we can start a commercial investigation company together."
"Commercial investigation company?" FDR asked doubtfully, "Mr. Yuan, do you mean a private detective agency like Pinkerton?"
Yuan Yanshu explained: "We can also do some of Pinkerton's business, but our survey company mainly does the public opinion surveys I mentioned."
"Mr. Roosevelt, this business model is currently blank in the United States. You already know that there must be many commercial companies and political workers like you who need this service. In this case, why don't we fill this gap?"
"Believe me, Mr. Roosevelt. There are great benefits to owning the world's number one polling company!"
The savior of the free world showed an obviously excited look on his face, but he still did not agree on the spot. Instead, he said ambiguously: "Mr. Yuan, I will seriously consider your suggestion. Maybe...well, maybe we can do an experiment first."
Our Master Yuan nodded in agreement and said, "No problem, then we will use this movie as an experiment. Regardless of whether Fidelity invests in it or not, I will conduct a poll. By comparing it with the box office in the future, we will know whether the poll data is accurate..."
"BIG DATA is the world's first commercial opinion polling company. For more than 60 years, Big Data has used scientific methods to measure and analyze the opinions, attitudes and behaviors of voters, consumers and employees, and provided marketing and management consulting services to clients based on these results. It has achieved outstanding academic and business results and is in a leading position worldwide..."
"The founders of Dashu Company are Vice President Ross and Master Yuan Yanshu. The two of them hit it off during a business negotiation in 1921 and soon after opened the company together. Since then, they have established a very good personal partnership."
"BIG DATA's expansion speed is staggering. When it was first established in New York in 1921, it had only a dozen employees. But before the Great Depression in 1929, BIG DATA's branches and offices were spread across 50 states in the United States. There were 5,000 full-time investigators on the list, not including senior consultants and part-time staff. Its business not only involved various commercial investigations, but also served as an indispensable consulting object for political workers at the time."
“Because the founder of Big Data was a loyal Democrat and a staunch Republican supporter, Big Data was known for its political neutrality and objective data from the beginning. Although there were many imitators of the opinion polling business at the time and major American media also established their own opinion polling departments, Big Data has always been the most credible opinion polling company in the United States.”
"It has not only successfully predicted every presidential election in the United States, but also maintained the highest accuracy rate in predicting local elections in the United States. Some people even joked that Mr. Yuan Yanshu's good luck has always blessed Dashu Company. The good luck here refers to the famous '250 incident' in which Mr. Yuan gambled on the result of the presidential election in 1920."
"Later, Mr. Yuan Yanshu had some complaints about the 'New Deal', believing it to be a betrayal of capitalism. However, the two of them remained good friends. After the outbreak of World War II, President Roosevelt entrusted Mr. Yuan with an important task and personally appointed him as a special adviser to the US Military Advisory Group..."
——Excerpt from "Baidu Encyclopedia: Big Data Company"
After that, it was time to eat. So in front of the savior of the free world, Yuan Yan ate all the dishes on the restaurant's menu.
"Mr. Yuan, your appetite is really amazing." After witnessing this exaggerated way of eating, FDR couldn't remain calm.
He gasped and said in disbelief, "And with the way you eat, you're still so thin!"
Our Master Yuan wiped his mouth with a napkin, took a sip of water, and said in an unfathomable yet calm pose: "Mr. Roosevelt, although Westerners like you may find it unscientific, we Seres do have ancient secrets."
"And I am also a practitioner of a secret technique called Devouring the World. As you know, this secret technique can help me recover from sepsis. But it also has some side effects. I have to eat a lot."
There is nothing wrong with what he said. The characters in "Devouring the Heaven and Earth" need to eat buns and pork elbows in big mouthfuls.
FDR was naturally very interested and asked, "Oh, Mr. Yuan. Is there really a secret technique that can help people recover from serious illnesses?"
"Of course, Mr. Roosevelt." Yuan Yan said calmly: "Some secret techniques can also cure other people's serious illnesses."
The savior of the free world shook his head slightly and said, "Mr. Yuan, even though you are a recognized gentleman, I still can't believe it."
Our Master Yuan smiled, picked up his knife and fork again and said, "You will believe it, Mr. Roosevelt, you will believe it..."
After having eaten and drunk his fill and satisfying his desire to fool people, Master Yuan said goodbye to FDR and went straight back to Rosewood.
As soon as he entered the door, the lobby supervisor came up to him warmly and said, "Mr. Yuan, good evening. You have a guest. He is in the bar now."
"Thank you, Frank."
Yuan Yan suddenly thought, that guy came quite quickly.
He turned and walked into the bar on the ground floor of the hotel, and sure enough, he saw a tall and muscular man drinking "juice" boredly beside the bar.
"ZOD... Um, Mr. Aiden, I'm sorry to have kept you waiting." Our Master Yuan greeted the visitor and turned to the bartender and said, "Give me a glass of the juice that this gentleman drank. By the way, put it all on my account."
"So Mr. Aiden, do you have any good news for me?"
General ZOD took out a few brown paper envelopes from his briefcase and said, "Mr. Yuan, take a look for yourself."
Yuan Yanshu didn't hesitate to open the envelopes and started reading.
Well, the professor still lives a secluded life and has almost no contact with outsiders except his students.
Well, Lindenwan and the Dragon Mother did make it to Europe, as evidenced by the customs records.
Well, Zhuang Kunlun has been quite honest these days and he doesn't even have anything unclear with Sister Lian .
Well, his Little Dragon Girl really became a good girl.
Master Yuan nodded with satisfaction and put away the documents.
However, Captain Aiden said sarcastically: "Mr. Yuan, it seems that you are really a gentleman who values friendship and loyalty. You care so much about your friends."
"Mr. Aiden, we Seres have an old saying, as long as you are careful enough, no matter whether it is a broken boat or a nice boat, it can last for ten thousand years." Yuan Yan suddenly relaxed his shoulders and said nonchalantly.
General ZOD curled his lips in disapproval and asked, "Mr. Yuan, then why did you, the captain, specifically ask me to come here?"
